Of Peter Ayton
Our next Centre for Decision Research seminar is online via Teams THIS WEEK Wednesday October 21st 14:00-15:00 (UK time) - and in person in Charles Thackrah SR 1/2 (1.01/1.02).
All are welcome.
CDR Seminar
Is Support for AI in Intelligence Analysis Rational?
Professor Mandeep Dhami
Middlesex University
.
.Wednesday 21st October 2026, 14:00-15:00 (UK time) Leeds University Business School: Online - Teams link here
Abstract: Intelligence failures, from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq War, show how costly flawed analysis can be. Yet decades of effort to improve analysts' reasoning, including critical thinking training, debiasing interventions and mandated structured analytic techniques, have produced little convincing evidence of improvement. Attention is now turning to artificial intelligence, and defence & security organizations are adopting it at pace. But, on what basis are these adoption decisions being made? In this talk, I first review evidence on why earlier efforts to improve analysis have fallen short. I then present two studies involving NATO-affiliated personnel assessing the benefits and drawbacks of AI in intelligence production. Drawing on subjective expected utility theory, I ask whether support for AI adoption reflects a rational weighing of risks and rewards, or something else. I close by considering what the findings mean for any organization deciding whether to use AI for high-stakes judgements.
The Speaker:
is Professor in Psychology at Middlesex University, London, UK. She previously held other academic positions in the UK (University of Surrey, University of Cambridge), as well as Canada (University of Victoria), USA (University of Maryland) and Germany (Max Planck Institute for Human Development). Mandeep has also worked as a Principal Scientist for the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (UK Ministry of Defence) and has work experience in two British prisons. She is an internationally recognized expert on human judgment and decision-making, risk perception, and uncertainty communication. Mandeep applies her expertise to solving problems in the criminal justice and defence & security sectors, specialising in bail/remand and sentencing decisions as well as intelligence analysis. She has authored over 145 scholarly publications and edited six books/volumes including ‘Judgment and Decision Making as a Skill’ published by Cambridge University Press (2013). Her research has received several international awards including from the NATO Science & Technology Organisation in 2020. Mandeep has represented the UK on two NATO research task groups and regularly advises Government bodies nationally and internationally on evidence-based policy and practice. She is co-Editor of Judgment and Decision Making, and President of the European Association for Decision Making. .
Microsoft Teams meeting
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