Message of Centre of Decision Reserch https://cdr.leeds.ac.uk/
With apologies for errata in the previous message - our next Centre for Decision Research seminar is online via Teams and in person THIS week on Wednesday December 3rd. All are welcome.
CDR Autumn Seminar
How Do Individuals React to Information in Naturalistic Settings? Rational Decision Making in Elite Sports
Dr Scott Dickenson
Department of Economics, University of Exeter
Wednesday 3rd December 2025, 2pm to 3pm (UK time)
University of Leeds, Charles Thackrah (SR G.07),
Also online on Teams (meeting link here)
Abstract
Abstract: In many experimental settings, individuals appear to either underreact or overreact to information when making decisions about the future. Less is known about how individuals react to information when making decisions in naturalistic settings. In this paper, I study the ability of individual decision makers to incorporate information about past outcomes when making judgements about future outcomes in naturalistic settings using data on elite sports. In the setting under observation, fans make hundreds of decision relating to the future performance of elite athletes. Using variation in outcomes between athletes who took comparable actions, I show that fans correctly incorporate persistence in the data generating process into their predictions. Not only do fans react to information in the correct direction, but they also appear to react with the correct magnitude. This is consistent with fans rationally reacting to information.
The speaker
Scott Dickenson is currently a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at University College London and the London School of Economics & Political Science, having recently submitted his PhD in Economics at the University of Exeter. Scott works at the intersection of behavioural & experimental economics and applied microeconomics. He uses large, observational datasets and causal inference methods to study information and beliefs, and judgement and decision making.
Future seminar:
Wednesday December 10th 2.00 - 3.00 Dr Carlo Campagnoli (Department of Psychology, University of Leeds) Perception and Presence: Mechanisms Underlying Real-World Action and Virtual Immersion